Studies have recently begun to explore the potential long-term health impacts of homeownership policies implemented in the New Deal era. We investigated the association between assigned grades of lending risk by the Home Owners’ Load Corporation (HOLC) maps from the 1930s and present-day prevalence of three cardiovascular risk factors (diabetes and obesity in 2020, and hypertension in 2019), estimated at the census tract level in the United States. To minimize potential confounding, we adjusted for sociodemographic data from the time period when HOLC maps were made. We calculated propensity scores (predicted probability of receiving a HOLC grade) and created a pseudo-population using inverse probability weighting. We then employed marginal structural models to estimate prevalence differences comparing A vs. B, B vs. C, and C vs. D HOLC grades. Adjusting only for regions, a less desirable HOLC grade was associated with higher estimated prevalence rates of present-day cardiovascular risk factors; however, most differences were no longer significant after applying propensity score methods. The one exception was that the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and obesity were all higher in C vs. B graded census tracts, while no differences were observed for C and D and A and B comparisons. These results contribute to a small body of evidence that suggests historical “yellowlining” (as C grade was in color yellow) may have had persistent impacts on neighborhood-level cardiovascular risk factors 80 years later.

Significance

Our findings highlight that mortgage lending risk assessment practices in the 1930s may have had differential persistent impacts on cardiovascular health up to eight decades later. Findings suggest that policy interventions like neighborhood reinvestment may need to address the potential impact not only of historical “redlining” practices but of “yellowlining” as well. This research applies methods to account for potential differences in population composition prior to the assignment of lending grades, allowing us to better examine the potential neighborhood-level causal impacts of historical discriminatory housing policies on cardiovascular health disparities.